Video Analysis: Jared Goff Late First Round Pick

Jared Goff will go in the first round and he will go early in the first round, however he shouldn’t. The risk analysis on his skill set suggests he’s at best a late first rounder. If he does fall that far expect one of the early second round teams to move back into the first to snag him.

Jared Goff flashes some brilliance, but also has extreme short comings in the face of pressure and his ability to deliver balls downfield. He holds the ball too long on several occasions and especially in the face of pressure. However, he also has a mastery of his offense and his short to intermediary throws are usually very accurate and on-time. There is just too much volatility in the tape with this passer to justify a high first round pick. The bust potential is too high and to an extent hidden because of the system he ran in college (see RGIII).

Good on time throw with excellent ball placement. These are what the majority of football throws must be.

Pressure gets in his face. Terrible footwork and the ball sailshigh. Ability to handle pressure differentiates several passers at the next level. He did get the ball out quickly which is nice.

The ball is out quick and on time. It is also in the correct location. The continuous use of the spread blurs the ability to grade how competent Goff is. The receivers are too open.

This is a gorgeous throw. Goff leads the receiver into sitting into a window between two defenders and throws it hard enough to force him up field. This shows high level anticipation and understanding of space.

Here is my concern with Goff. When the read option opens up throwing lanes he looks good (think Kaepernick or Robert Griffin). However, when the action doesn’t creates holes in the defense he isn’t enough of a natural passer to make throws. He needs his offense to create his passing lanes. Elite quarterbacks are able to create their own throws and too often we see Goff holding the ball. This can snowball at the next level.

Same as above. We see him taking hits.

A very good touch throw. Goff get’s the ball between two defenders on two separate levels of the defense. This is a very high caliber throw.

He takes a lot of hits because the ball doesn’t necessarily come out on time. Not much he could’ve done here however. He made sure not to take a sack and the ball falls incomplete.

Goff waits for the receiver to clear the linebacker and makes the throw. He may have realized he had enough time to make this throw, however the concern lingers that he may have held on too long.

Again, he holds the ball too long. It makes me question if he sees throws down the field. Most of his throws are within 5-15 yards of the line of scrimmage. This is how Blaine Gabbert ended up at the top of the draft.

Goff show’s inconsistency going down the field. The read option also allows his receivers to run free and misleads us about how good he may be. This is how RGIII ended up at the top of the draft.

Goff struggles to make throws down the field. He holds the ball too long. You don’t see elite quarterbacks who have success at the next level take this amount of hits and sacks. They get rid off the ball and throw their receivers open.

This is a good throw, but it does not translate to the NFL. The action at the beginning of the play draws the receiver open and Goff does make a wonderful throw, but more often than not, that throw isn’t there on that level. This play although great in college proves to be fool’s gold for evaluating Goff.

Goff cost his team points here. Poor handling of time and situation. He again holds on too long and takes a hit. He also stays in bounds which costs his team an opportunity to score before the half.

Goff struggles going down field and creating throws. Without the help of the run action he can’t seem to hit the open guy.

Whoa! Goff comes back with this. This is the highest caliber throw and what gives him high first round potential. He doesn’t show it often enough in my opinion, but it is nice to see it is in his bag.

This embodies the good and the bad. Great that he kept his eyes up field and eventually found a guy. Bad that it took so long. He can’t seem to find a receiver quickly unless it’s off the run action or if it’s his first read.

Incredible throw in rhythm and on time. He goes down the field perfectly.

His struggle with throws down the field handicap him. The argument could be made that his ceiling will be limited at the next level. These are traits the disposed Teddy Bridgewater and Ryan Nassib to late 1st and 2nd round picks.

Goff struggles with pressure. When he’s pushed he holds it too long and we see again rushes his throws and delivers inaccurately.

It looked like the receiver had a step and Goff delivered a poor ball that required the reciever to make a lot of adjustments. More data points that make me question Goff’s ceiling.

This is a nice ball with touch. This just reaffirms that Goff does make some nice throws. There is a lot of volatility with this prospect. He dazzles and dazes.

Look at the ball placement with pressure in his face. Leaves a lot to be desired.

Again in a high pressure situation Goff takes a sack. This is extremely troubling and is the quickest way to become a bust in the NFL. Too frequently Goff doesn’t make a quick read or throw when he doesn’t benefit from the scheme creating his passing lane.

There are suggestions that Goff is a product of his system. He holds the ball too long when he doesn’t get the benefit of passing lanes created by run action (read option). These are the same concerns that have left the careers of RGIII and Colin Kaepernick in shambles. Goff also struggles coming off his first read, holds the ball too long, and panics in the face of pressure. His throws down the field are lack consistency, volume and accuracy (traits of captain check down Blaine Gabbert).

Goff does show us some positives with his short to intermediate accuracy and control of throws in that range. Often he does deliver balls on time and when he is given time it is almost always accurate.  Goff has a very high floor, but his potentially limited ceiling are what keep him from being a top 10 talent. He can potentially be a good starter in the NFL, but he doesn’t show the special talent of an all pro franchise quarterback. Guys with his talent should be drafted late first to early second round.


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