Probability of Drafting a QB by Team

Definitely=91-100% chance

Likely= 65-90% chance

Possibly= 36-65% chance

Not likely= 11-35% chance

No Chance=0-10% chance

  1. Tennessee Titans – No Chance

Jury is out on Mariota, but they aren’t going quarterback. Good slot for teams to move up.

  1. Cleveland Browns- Definitely

They need one. They will get one somewhere this offseason. They could even be enticed to move up to get one.

  1. San Diego Chargers- Not Likely

They have Philip Rivers. They were almost a “likely”, but they have too many other holes on defense to use this pick on a QB.

  1. Dallas Cowboys-Possibly

This rating went from up from “not likely” solely based on Jerry Jones. His tendency to get infatuated with players increases the probability this pick could go that way.

  1. Jacksonville Jaguars-No Chance

They have found their man in Bortles. He and Luck will battle it for the next 10 years in that division.

  1. Baltimore Ravens- Not Likely

They more than likely won’t pick a QB unless it’s for another team in a trade. However, that Flacco contract is a bad one and a cheaper alternative could prove tantalizing.

  1. San Francisco 49ers-Likely

They need one, but Chip Kelly’s tendency to want to be the smartest guy in the room keeps this from a sure thing. He could start the season with Pat White as his QB for all we know.

  1. Miami Dolphins-Possibly

New coach means that eventually a QB change could be coming. It probably won’t be this year, but if he puts on the tape and doesn’t like what he sees it could become more likely.

  1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers-No Chance

See Tennessee Titans

  1. New York Giants-No Chance

They aren’t going quarterback. They have their QB of the present in Eli and of the future in Nassib.

  1. Chicago Bears- Likely

The Bears are bearish on Cutler. I think they will learn they can do way worse and there are plenty of NFL teams that will line up for his services. The likeliness of this move is about activity less than it is about achievement. They better get this right if they go QB or they will be picking one again and in a higher slot.

  1. New Orleans Saints-Likely

They have Brees but this team in on the verge of blowing it up. The only reason this isn’t a
“definitely” is because there is a chance they use Brees as a place holder to build other position before finding a franchise signal caller.

  1. Philadelphia Eagles-Definitely

It’s time. Doug Pederson wants his own guy and he will get him. The chiefs have a lot of really good backups so he could go that route. However, the urgency at that position for this franchise makes it highly likely they go QB.

  1. Oakland Raiders-No Chance

Derek Carr is the guy. They are going to get him some help.

  1. Los Angeles Rams- Definitely

I don’t understand how this team could be as bad as they are with the picks that they have accumulated. This is the type of team that could quickly go from bad to good with a QB. Jeff Fisher may be too stubborn to make that pick however he won’t be here when they are ready to compete again.

  1. Detroit Lions-Likely

See Chicago Bears

  1. Atlanta Falcons-No Chance

They are rolling with Matt Ryan.

  1. Indianapolis Colts- No Chance

They are rolling with Andrew Luck

  1. Buffalo Bills-No Chance

They are rolling with Tyrod Taylor…but they shouldn’t.

  1. New York Jets-Not Likely

Geno should and perhaps will be cut. Fitzpatrick looked competent at times. If one of the top guys happens to have an Aaron Rodgers type fall, they could jump at the chance.

  1. Washington Redskins- No Chance

Kirk Cousins will get a long term deal or the franchise tag. They went from a definite to a no chance in one year.

  1. Houston Texans- Definitely

They need a quarterback. Hoyer may go into camp as the starter again, but they will have a young guy to groom behind him.

  1. Minnesota Vikings- No Chance

Bridgewater has been serviceable enough to keep them out of the bottom of the NFL. He has shown enough that they will not discuss QB at this slot.

  1. Cincinnati Bengals- Not Likely

Another 1st round loss is the only reason this wasn’t a “no chance”. If something crazy happens on draft day and they are infatuated with an arm they could get desperate and pull the trigger.

  1. Pittsburgh Steelers- No Chance

Ben isn’t old enough to find his replacement yet. If they do they will look later on.

  1. Seattle Seahawks- Not Likely

Russell Wilson got his contract last year and they are tied to him. Of course there was talk that they would let him walk last year and just find another Russell Wilson in the draft. Plenty of teams in the top of the draft order wish it was that easy.

  1. Green Bay Packers- No Chance

Aaron Rodgers down year is better then almost anyone else’s career best.

  1. Kansas City Chiefs- No Chance

This isn’t about Alex Smith so much as they have one of the deepest QB positions in the league.

  1. Arizona Cardinals-Possibly

This late in the draft you usually don’t have teams that are quarterback needy. The Cardinals are an exception. They just had an aging Carson Palmer have a meltdown in the NFC Championship game. If they have someone they like they could grab him at the end of the 1st round a la Teddy Bridgewater.

  1. Denver Broncos- Not Likely

Osweiler is ok, but he has flashed enough that they will give him the keys to the car and not waste the pick. Of course if there is someone they just can’t pass on that could change. If they really like someone look for John Elway to move up in front of the Cardinals to get his guy.

  1. Carolina Panthers- No Chance

Cam Newton doesn’t have to worry about looking over his shoulder. They have the league MVP and they will probably get him a weapon on offense to help him.


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